Transatlantic Foreign and Security policy
In discussions on transatlantic foreign and security policy, Keeping Channels Open has engaged with dozens of stakeholders on the global challenges erupting daily and the deficits in Western strategy and solidarity.
Against the backdrop of turbulence caused by the Ukraine War, Brexit, Trump, COVID, the Afghan withdrawal and other watershed moments, we are discussing how to shore up vulnerabilities in cross-border cooperation, democratic solidarity, health systems, energy and food supplies and economic inter-dependence.
Topics range across effective ways to end Russia’s aggression and hybrid threats, tackle Covid and climate change, strengthen liberal democracy against authoritarianism and interference, engage effectively with China and shape the global world order.
Our Questions
- How do we stop Russia’s war on Ukraine and threats to the broader region?
- How do we capitalise on impressive Western unity and coordination to boost resilience and security in the longer term?
- Is the war in Ukraine and other recent crises forcing geopolitical realignment?
- Do we need new security and economic architecture to deal with new challenges?
- Will positive UK-EU cooperation over sanctions and diplomacy spread to other areas of foreign policy and security?
- Will the global and transatlantic goals of 2021 summits be lost amidst new crises?
- Is America truly ‘back’ or is there a need for more European ‘strategic autonomy’?
- How has the US and Allied withdrawal from Afghanistan changed concepts of intervention?
- Are red lines on China tough enough, while still leaving room for engagement?
- How can liberal democracies come together to defend our values and strengthen the rules-based order in the face of technological change, rising authoritarianism, populism and disinformation?
To debate these tough questions, we welcomed the views of analysts, think-tanks, politicians and civil servants, including from the US Administration, EU, NATO and UK Foreign Office.
Renewing the Transatlantic Alliance
& Values-based Multilateralism
russian invasion of ukraine
In 2022, we held group discussions with UK, EU and US politicians and experts on how to coordinate an array of responses to the Russian war. Many stakeholders agreed that the invasion reflected a culmination of Putin’s hybrid aggressions in the region since 2008 aimed at expanding Russia’s empire, undermining Western democracies and cementing his power.
The West had not been not tough enough with sanctions and other measures after the annexation of Crimea in 2014, incursions into Eastern Ukraine, Syrian bombardments, occupation of parts of Georgia, downing of the Malaysian airliner and so on. However, there was no green light given to Putin to invade Ukraine – the aggressor must be the focus of blame.
Despite a highly praised Ukrainian fightback, the Russian army have consolidated positions in the East and South and imposed a blockade of Ukraine’s Black Sea ports, wreaking havoc on the world’s wheat supplies.
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Russia v Ukraine: what’s at stake
A selection of expert comments…
“This is a turning point. We can be grateful to Putin for having jolted us all out of complacency, but we mustn’t take our eye off the ball. We have to collectively do the hard graft to wean ourselves off oligarch money, not just from Russia but from Central Asia and elsewhere. We must also build up our resilience in all areas including cybersecurity, democracy & disinformation & secure our energy independence.”
“The war in Ukraine is definitely about democracy, particularly at Putin’s borders; this is what he fears. Of course, it’s also about reclaiming a lost Russian Empire and fears of waning global influence. But at its core, it is about the fear of the contagion of democracy. The biggest threat to Putin’s security is democrats within.”
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Investigating War Crimes in Ukraine
A selection of expert comments…
“Russia’s unlawful behaviour did not start this February. They have committed war crimes and violated international law since early 2014. Unfortunately, there has been no proper legal answer to these questions by any international judicial institutions.”
This will be the most documented conflict in history and the most intensively examined commission of war crimes in the shortest period of time.
“The trials in Ukraine are sending a very clear message that we respect the rule of law and that every soldier who comes to Ukraine and commits war crimes will face justice.”
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Geopolitical Shifts
Most participants in recent discussions agreed that the world has radically changed in recent years through a reapportionment of power and influence.
“This change in the balance of powers has been caused by an increasingly assertive China, growing India and Indonesia, revanchist Russia and deep divisions in the democratic world.”
“The perceived failures of costly interventions in Iraq and Afghanistan have put the US and Western allies on the backfoot. Public sentiment will deter them from similar large-scale missions in future.”
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Afghanistan
The messy withdrawal from Afghanistan in August 2021 marked a watershed moment in Western interventionism. Based on unilateral US decision-making, the move sent a strong signal about transatlantic disunity and US leadership.
New instruments, tools and formats will be needed to advance values overseas and resolve conflicts, since comprehensive nation-building missions are no longer in vogue. There will also be a focus on shoring up liberal democracy at home and linking foreign and domestic policies, in order to win over weary and sceptical publics.
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Forging Common Agendas
Overall, participants have been encouraged that the Western alliance appeared in 2021 to be developing a common agenda.
“We’ve got the big issues on the table of our top institutions, and are having a dialogue on the most important items.”
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recommendations
- Develop an agenda of democratic resilience and speak with a collective voice on good governance and human rights violations overseas. Tangible commitments can be made through the UN, G20 and Democracy Summit and in cooperation with Indo-Pacific democracies.
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Briefing Papers
A summary of our roundtables (held under the Chatham House Rule), including top comments from European, American, British and Australian politicians, experts and analysts.